The deal shifts the US posture towards India from hostile to neutral, and that matters for growth, points out T T Ram Mohan.
Nomura has forecast the rupee at 61.6 against the dollar in Q1 and at 62 by Q4 of 2015.
Households should moderate large discretionary expenses for the time being.
'They should prioritise essential spending. They should maintain an emergency fund covering 6 to 12 months of expenses.'
In the present hyper-connected world, there are many domestic and global factors that affect financial markets. Of them, the most powerful and often least predictable are geopolitical events, which often boil down to one diplomatic headline.
His officials are working on a series of steps to attract at least $20 billion in new investment to fund the deficit without depleting India's $300 billion in forex reserves.
India's retail inflation, which has stayed below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent target in recent times, is likely to remain benign in the coming months, RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said in a speech, on Friday, which was uploaded on the central bank's website on Tuesday. Headline inflation dipped to multi-year lows of around 1.5-2.8 per cent in late 2025.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Friday warned that India's limited crude oil reserves of about 100 million barrels - sufficient for only 40-45 days of consumption - leave the country particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war in West Asia.
India's merchandise trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, as gold imports trebled and outbound shipments registered their sharpest contraction in 14 months, according to data released by the commerce department.
Strong domestic growth will continue to draw foreign investment into the Indian economy, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Tuesday. He said this was reflected in recent free trade agreements and investment commitments by large technology companies.
Domestic equities surged on Tuesday, posting their best single-day gains in more than eight months after a long-awaited trade deal between India and the US. The deal, which lowered tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from 50 per cent, significantly improved investor sentiment and lifted a key overhang for the market.
India's real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow at 7.5 per cent in FY26 and moderate to 7 per cent in the subsequent fiscal year, a domestic rating agency said on Wednesday.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announces increased domestic LPG production to offset import disruptions caused by Middle East tensions, alongside assurances of fertiliser availability and the clearing of UPA-era oil bonds.
Real GDP growth surprised on the upside in 2025, but weaker nominal growth, trade uncertainty, and soft demand signal a bumpier road ahead.
The Indian rupee, swaying through multiple headwinds, tiding over global trade disruptions and massive foreign fund outlfows, is unlikely to arrest its descent until tariff impact overhangs, notwithstanding robust domestic macroeconomic tailwinds. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which sees the rupee's depreciation as a silver bullet to offset the tariff shock, expects the currency to find its stable course once India reaches a trade deal with its largest trading partner, the US.
It underperformed peers amid volatile capital flows and uneven forex support.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
Gold imports climbed 349.22 per cent to $12.07 billion in January, while silver imports rose 127 per cent to $2 billion.
Investors must account for currency depreciation in their financial plans and use instruments that can cushion the erosion in purchasing power.
It's time to step on the reforms accelerator.
India's economy experienced a growth of 7.8 per cent during the October-December quarter of 2025-26, according to the new series of national accounts with 2022-23 as the base year.
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
The idea of back-loading the target of fiscal consolidation is perhaps guided by the government's desire to be prepared for any adverse developments in the coming year, points out A K Bhattacharya.
India is growing fast, but to keep growing strong, the government must make more things at home, create jobs, and spend money wisely, suggests Rajiv Memani, regional managing partner, Africa-India Region, EY.
Global rating Moody's on Monday affirmed India's long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings and the local-currency senior unsecured rating at 'Baa3' with a 'stable' outlook on the back of robust economic growth and sound external position. The rating agency also affirmed India's other short-term local-currency rating at P-3.
The key question is how much of the latest growth record represents recovery from the 2020-2021 downturn, and what is the sustainable growth rate now, asks T N Ninan.
'The trade deficit in some sectors is huge and that is an area of opportunity to localise.'
The power sector presents a puzzle. A fast-growing economy should be aligned to higher power demand but that hasn't been the case in the financial year 2026 till date (FY26TD).
The core dilemma remains: Why provide further stimulus to an economy that is already booming at an 8 per cent growth rate? asks Rajeswari Sengupta.
'A breakout above 158,000 to 160,000 could trigger the next leg higher toward 165,000 to 170,000.'
Trade deficit for the quarter narrowed by about a third to $30.7 billion from $45.6 billion in the year-ago period.
'Economic activity appears to have peaked in the second quarter of FY26, with industrial output, exports, and business confidence all softening from October 2025.'
India's high cost of capital due to relatively shallow corporate bond markets, limited institutional investor depth, sovereign risk premia, and regulatory restrictions on capital flows, is a constraint on private investment and long-run growth, the Economic Survey, authored by Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran, said.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra, and Deputy Governors Poonam Gupta, T Rabi Sankar, Swaminathan J, and S C Murmu on Friday addressed issues during the post-policy media interaction.
'Calibrated depreciation will help rebalance external fundamentals, offset some of the tariff differentials with competitors, improve the competitiveness of domestic substitutes vis-a-vis Chinese imports, and contribute to the easing of financial conditions at a time when the inflation rate is unusually low,' explains Sajjid Z Chinoy, head of Asia Economics at JP Morgan.
Officials from both India and the US in the recent past have indicated that a "fair deal" will be concluded soon, with Indian officials holding that more formal rounds of talks are not needed.
'When markets go into a budget with excessive optimism, the risk of disappointment is higher.'
Despite a strong 7.8 per cent growth in the first quarter, the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current financial year as the impact of US tariffs on Indian exports will reduce prospects, particularly in the second half, ADB said on Tuesday.
This is the first Budget in my memory of Budgets over the last half a century which has embraced upfront, enthusiastically and emphatically, technology, modernity and fiscal sobriety, notes Shreekant Sambrani.
Current account surplus of Rs 6,520 cr in Q2.
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